营销管理[美]菲利普•科特勒著第十一版

第二章：营销环境

教学目的：通过对课程基本概念与知识的讲授，使学生理解通过环境分析，掌握分析环境的方法，了解最重要的环境因素，在面临的机会和威胁不同的情况下如何看展营销活动。
教学重点：环境分析方法。
教学难点：如何面对不断变化的营销环境？
教学时数：6（讲授、咨询型课型）
教学内容与步骤：

Chapter 2  Scanning the MarketingEnvironment

Kotler on Marketing
Today you have to run faster to stay in place.

Chapter Objectives
 In this chapter, we focus on two questions:
1. What are the key methods for tracking and identifying opportunities in the macroenvironment?
2. What are the key demographic, economic, natural, technological, political, and cultural developments?

Analyzing needs and trends in the microenvironment
   Successful' companies recognize and respond profitably to unmet needs and trends.     Companies could make a fortune if they could solve any of these problems: a cure for cancer, chemical cures for mental diseases, desalinization of seawater, nonfattening, tasty nutritious food, practical electric cars, and affordable homing.  
Enterprising individuals and companies manage to create new solutions to unmet needs. Club Med emerged to meet the needs of single people for exotic vacations; the Walkman and CD Man were created for active people who wanted to listen to music; Nautilus was created for men and women who wanted to tone their bodies; FedEx was created to meet the need for next-day mail delivery. Many opportunities are found by identifying trends. A trend is a direction or sequence of events that has some momentum and durability.
Identifying and responding to the major microenvironment forces
Companies and their suppliers, marketing intermediaries, customers, competitors, and publics all operate in a macro environment. Of forces and trends that shape opportunities and pose threats. These forces represent "non -controllable," to which the company must monitor and respond. In the economic arena, global forces increasingly affect companies and consumers. These include:
 1. The substantial speedup of international transportation, communication, and financial transactions, leading to the rapid growth of world trade and investment, especially triploid trade.
 2. The movement of manufacturing capacity and skills to lower-cost countries.
 3. The rising economic power of several Asian countries in world markets.
 4. The rise of trade blocs such as the European Union and the NAFTA signatories.
 5. The severe debt problems of a number of countries, along with the increasing fragility of the international financial system.
 6. The increasing use of barter and counter trade to support international transactions.
7. The move toward market economies in formerly socialist countries along with rapid privatization of publicly Owned companies.
 8. The rapid dissemination of global lifestyles.
 9. The gradual opening of major new markets, namely, China, India, Eastern Europe, the Arab countries, and Latin America.
10. The increasing tendency of multinationals to transcend their lavational and national characteristics and become transnational firms.
11. The increasing number of cross-border corporate strategic alliances--for example, MCI and British Telecom, and Texas Instruments and Hitachi.
12. The increasing ethnic and religious conflicts in certain countries and regions.
13. The growth of global brands in autos, food, clothing, and electronics.
Demographic environment
The first macro environmental force that marketers monitor is population, because people make up markets. Marketers are keenly interested in the size and growth rate of population in cities, regions, and nations; age distribution and ethnic mix; educational levels; household patterns; and regional characteristics and movements.
WORLDWIDE POPULATION GROWTH The world population is showing "explosive" growth: it totaled 6.1 billion in 2000 and will exceed 7.9 billion by the year 2025? Here is an interesting picture:
     If the world were a village of 1,000 people, it would consist of 520 women and      480 men, 330 children and 60 people over age 65, 10 college graduates and 335      illiterate adults. The village would contain 52 North Americans, 55 Russians, 84      Latin Americans, 95 Europeans, 134 Africans, and 584 Asians. Communication      would be difficult because 165 people would speak Mandarin, 86 English, 83      Hindi, 64 Spanish, 58 Russian, and 37 Arabic, and the rest would speak one of      over 200 other languages. There would be 329 Christians, 178 Moslems, 132      Hindus, 62 Buddhists, 3 Jews, 167 nonreligious, 45 atheists, and 84 others.
 POPULATION AGE MIX National populations vary in their age mix. At one extreme is Mexico, a country with a very young population and rapid population growth. At the other extreme is Japan, a country with one of the world's oldest populations. Milk, diapers, school supplies, and toys would be important products in Mexico. Japan's population would consume many more adult products.
   A population can be subdivided into six age groups: preschool, school-age children, teens, young adults age 25 to 40, middle-aged adults age 40 to 65, and older adults age 65 and up.
ETHNIC AND OTHER MARKETS Countries also vary in ethnic and racial makeup. At one extreme is Japan, where almost everyone is Japanese; at the other is the United States, where people from come virtually all nations. The United States was originally called a "melting pot,' but there are increasing signs that the melting didn't occur Now people call the United States a "salad bowl" society with ethnic groups maintaining their ethnic differences, neighborhoods, and cultures. The U.S. population (276.2 million in 2000) is 72 percent white. African Americans constitute another 13 percent, and Latinos another 11 percent. The Latino population has been growing fast, with the largest subgroups of Mexican (5.4, percent), Puerto Rican (1.1 percent), and Cuban (0.4 percent) descent. Asian Americans constitute 3.8 percent of the U.S, population.
EDUCATIONAL GROUPS the population in any society falls into five educational groups: illiterates, high school dropouts, high school degrees, college degrees, and professional degrees. In Japan, 99 percent of the population is literate, whereas in the United States 10 percent to 15 percent of the population may be functionally illiterate. However, the United States has one of the world's highest percentages of college-educated citizens, around 36 percent. The high number of educated people in the United States spells a high demand for quality books, magazines, and travel, and a high supply of skills.
 HOUSEHOLD PATTERNS the "traditional household" consists of a husband, wife, and children (and sometimes grandparents). Yet, in the 'United States today, one out of eight households is "diverse" or "nontraditional,' and includes single live-alones, adult live-together of one or both sexes, single-parent families, childless married couples, and empty-nesters. More people are divorcing or separating, choosing not to marry, marrying later, or marrying without the intention to have children. Each group has a distinctive set of needs and buying habits. For example, people in the SSWD group is ingle, separated, widowed, divorced) need smaller apartments; inexpensive and smaller appliances, furniture, and furnishings; and smaller-size food packages. Marketers must increasingly consider the special needs of nontraditional households, because they are now growing more rapidly than traditional households.
     The gay market, in particular, is a lucrative one. Compared to the average American, respondents are 11.7 times more likely to be in professional jobs, almost twice as likely to own a vacation home, eight times more likely to own a computer notebook, and twice as likely to own individual stocks? Insurance, financial, and other companies are waking up to the needs and potential of this market and the nontraditional household market as a whole.
FROM A MASS MARKET TO MICROMARKETS the effect of all these changes is fragmentation of the mass market into numerous micro markets differentiated by age, sex, ethnic background, education, geography, lifestyle, and other characteristics. Each group has strong preferences and is reached through increasingly targeted communication media and distribution channels. Companies are abandoning the "shotgun approach" that aimed at a mythical "average" consumer and are increasingly designing their products and marketing programs for specific micro markets, many of which can be reached through specialized magazines, direct mail, or Web sites.
Demographic trends are highly reliable for the short and intermediate run. There is little excuse for a company’s is suddenly surprised by demographic developments. The Singer Company should have known for years that smaller families would hurt its sewing machine business and more working wives, yet it was slow in responding. In contrast, think of the rewards marketers reap when they focus on a demographic development. Some marketers are actively courting the lucrative SOHO market. Nearly 40 million Americans are working out of their homes with the help of electronic conveniences like computers, cell phones, fax machines, and personal organizers.
 Economic environment
  Markets require purchasing power as well as people. The available purchasing power in an economy depends on current income, prices, savings, debt, and credit availability. Marketers must pay close attention to major trends in income and consumer-spending patterns.
INCOME DISTRIBUTION Nations vary greatly in level and distribution of income and industrial structure. There are four types of industrial structures: subsistence economies (few opportunities for marketers); raw-material-exporting economies like Zaire (copper) and Saudi Arabia (oil), with good markets for equipment, tools, supplies, and luxury goods for the rich; industrializing economies, like India, Egypt, and the Philippines, where a new rich class and a growing middle class demand new types of goods; and industrial economies, which are rich markets for all sorts of goods.
SAVINGS, DEBT, AND CREDIT AVAILABILITY Consumer expenditures are affected by savings, debt, and credit availability. The Japanese, for example, save about 13.1 percent of their income, whereas U.S. consumers save about 4.7 percent. The result has been that Japanese banks were able to loan money to Japanese companies at a much lower interest rate than U.S. banks could offer to U.S. companies. Access to lower interest rates helped Japanese companies expand faster. U.S. consumers also have a high debt-to-income ratio, which slows down further, expenditures on housing and large-ticket items. Credit is very available in the United States but at fairly high ‘interest rates, especially to lower-income borrowers. Here the Internet can offer a helping hand: Consumers seeking a mortgage can go to lendingtree.com, fill ‘out a single loan application, and receive several loan package proposals from competing banks within 48 hours. The bottom line is that marketers must pay careful attention to major changes in incomes, cost of living, interest rates, savings, and borrowing patterns because they can have a strong impact on business, especially for companies whose products are geared to high-income and price-sensitive consumers.
Natural environment
 The deterioration of the natural environment is a major global concern. In many world cities, air and water pollution have reached dangerous levels. There is great concern about "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels, about the depletion of the ozone layer due to certain chemicals, and about growing shortages of water. In Western Europe, "green" parties have vigorously pressed for public action to reduce industrial pollution. In the United States, experts have documented ecological deterioration, and watchdog groups such as the Sierra Club and Friends of the Earth carry these concerns into political and social action.
     New regulations hit certain industries very hard. Steel companies and public utilities have had to invest billions of dollars in pollution-control equipment and more environmentally friendly fuels. The auto industry has had to introduce expensive emission controls in cars. The soap industry has had to increase its products' biodegradability.
SHORTAGE OF RAW MATERIALS The earth's raw materials consist of the infinite, the finite renewable, and the finite nonrenewable. Infinite. Resources, such as air and water, are becoming a problem. Water shortages are already a political issue, and the danger is no longer long term. Environmental groups have lobbied for a ban on certain propellants used in aerosol cans because of the potential damage they can cause to the ozone layer. Finite renewable resources, such as forests and food, must be used wisely. Forestry Companies are required to reforest timberlands in order to protect the soil and to ensure sufficient wood to meet future demand. Because the amount of arable land is fixed and urban areas are constantly encroaching on farmland, food supply can also be a major problem.
INCREASED ENERGY COSTS One finite nonrenewable resource, off, has created serious problems for the world economy. In October 2000, oil prices shot up again to $34 a barrel, creating a renewed search for alternative energy forms. Companies are searching for practical means to harness solar, nuclear, wind, and other forms of energy. In the solar energy field alone, hundreds of firms introduced first-generation products to harness solar energy for heating homes and other uses. Other firms are engaged in building practical electric automobiles, with a potential prize of billions for the winner. Practical combination vehicles, like the Toyota Prius, are already available.
ANTI-POLLUTION PRESSURES Some industrial activity will inevitably damage the natural environment. Consider the dangerous mercury levels in the oceans the quantity of DDT and other chemical pollutants in the soil and food supply, and the littering of the environment with bottles, plastics, and other packaging materials.     About 42 percent of U.S. consumers are willing to pay higher prices for "green" products. This willingness creates a large market ~or pollution-control solutions, such as scrubbers, recycling centers, and landfill systems. It leads to a search for alternative ways to produce and package goods. 3M runs a Pollution Prevention Pays program that has led to a substantial reduction in pollution and costs. Dow Chemical built a new ethylene plant in Alberta that uses 40 percent less energy and releases 97 percent less wastewater. AT&T uses a special software package to choose the least harmful materials cut hazardous waste, reduce energy use, and improve product recycling in its operations.
CHANGING ROLE OF GOVERNMENTS Governments vary in their concern and efforts to promote a clean environment. For example, the German government is vigorous in its pursuit of environmental quality, partly because of the strong green movement in Germany and partly because of the ecological devastation in the former East Germany.
Many poor nations are doing little about pollution, largely because they lack the funds or the political will. It is in the richer nations' interest to help the poorer nations control their pollution, but even the richer nations today lack the necessary funds.
Technological environment
One of the most dramatic forces shaping people’s lives is technology. Technology has released such wonders as penicillin, open-heart surgery, and the birth control pill. It has released such horrors as the hydrogen bomb, nerve gas, and the submachine gun. It has also released such mixed blessings as the automobile and video games.       
Every new technology is a force for "creative destruction." Transistors hurt the vacuum-tube industry, xerography hurt the carbon paper business, autos hurt the railroads, and television hurt the newspapers. Instead of moving into the new technologies, many old industries fought or ignored them, and their businesses declined.
ACCELERATING PACE OF CHANGE many of today's common products were not available 40 years ago. John F. Kennedy did not know personal computers, digital wristwatches, video recorders, fax machines, personal digital assistants, or the Internet; nor has the pace of technological change slowed down. The Human Genome project promises to usher in the Biological Century as biotech workers create new medical cures, new foods, and new materials (see "Marketing Memo: Biotech is Unleashing Unlimited Opportunities"). Electronic researchers are building smarter chips to make our cars, homes, and offices more responsive to changing conditions. The blending of personal computers, scanners, fax and copy machines, wireless phones, the Intermit, and e-mail has made it possible for people to telecommute—that is, work at home or on the road instead of traveling to an office. This trend may reduce auto pollution, bring the family closer together, and create more home centered shopping and entertainment. An increasing number of ideas are being worked on, and the time between the appearance of new ideas and their successful implementation is all but disappearing. So is the time between introduction and peak production. Ninety percent of all the scientists who ever lived are alive today, and technology feeds upon itself.
UNLIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATION Scientists today are working on a startling range of new technologies that will revolutionize products and production processes. Some of the most exciting work is being done in biotechnology, computers, microelectronics, telecommunications, robotics, and designer materials. Researchers are working on AIDS cures, happiness pills, painkillers, totally safe contraceptives, and nonfattening foods. They are designing robots for firefighting, underwater exploration, and home amusing. In addition, scientists also work on fantasy products, such as small flying cars, three-dimensional television, and space colonies. The challenge in each case is to develop affordable versions of these products. 
VARYING R&D BUDGETS The United States leads the world in annual R&D expenditure, $264 billion in 2000, but nearly 60 percent of these funds are still earmarked for defense. There is a need to transfer more of this money into research on material science, biotechnology, and micro mechanics. Japan has increased its R&D expenditures much faster than has the United States and is spending it mostly on no defense-related reach in physics, biophysics, and computer science.
A growing portion of U.S. R&D expenditures is going into the development side of R&D, raising concerns about whether the United States can maintain its lead in basic science. Many companies are content to put their money into copying competitors' products and making minor feature and style improvements. Even basic-research companies such as DuPont, Bell Laboratories, and Pfizer are proceeding cautiously, and more research directed toward major breakthroughs is being conducted by consortiums of companies rather than by single companies.
INCREASED REGULATION OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE As products become more complex, the public needs to be assured of their safety. Consequently, government agencies' powers to investigate and ban potentially unsafe products have been expanded. In the United States, the Federal Food and Drug Administration must approve all drugs before they can be sold.
GROWTH OF SPECIAL-INTEREST GROUPS The number and power of special interest: groups have increased over the past three decades. Political action committees (PACs) lobby government officials and pressure business executives to pay more attention to consumers' fights, women's rights, senior citizens' rights, minority rights, and gay fights. Many companies have established public affairs departments to deal with these groups and issues. An important force affecting business is the consumerist movement--an organized movement of citizens and government to strengthen the rights and powers of buyers in relation to sellers. Consumerists have advocated and won the right to know the true interest cost of a loan, the true cost per standard unit of competing brands (unit pricing): the basic ingredients in a product, the nutritional quality of food, the freshness of products, and the true benefits of a product.
    In response, several companies have established consumer affairs departments to help formulate policies and respond to consumer complaints. Companies are careful to answer their e-mail and to resolve and learn from any customer complaints. If they fail to do so, angry customers can spread bad word of mouth through chat rooms and other means.
   Clearly, new laws and growing numbers of pressure groups have put more restraints on marketers. Marketers have to clear their plans with the company's legal, public relations, public affairs, and consumer-affairs departments. Insurance companies directly or indirectly affect the design of smoke detectors; scientific groups affect the design of spray products by condemning aerosols. In essence, many private marketing transactions have moved into the public domain.
Social-cultural environment
 Society shapes our beliefs, values, and norms. People absorb, almost unconsciously, a worldview that defines their relationships to themselves, to others, to organizations, to society, to nature, and to the universe.
Views of themselves: People vary in the relative emphasis they place on self-gratification. In the United States during the 1960s and 1970s, "pleasure seekers" sought fun, change, and escape. Others sought "self-realization." People bought dream cars and dream vacations and spent more time in health activities (jogging, tennis), in introspection, and in arts and crafts. Today, some people are adopting more conservative behaviors and ambitions. Marketers must recognize that there are many different groups with different views of themselves.
Views of others: People are concerned about the homeless, crime and victims, and other social problems. They would like to live in a more humane society. At the same time, people are seeking out there "own kind" and avoiding strangers. They hunger for serious and long-lasting relationships with a few others. These trends portend a growing market for social-support products and services that promote direct relations between human beings, such as health clubs, cruises, and religious activity. They also suggest a growing market for "social surrogates," things that allow people who are alone to feel that they are not, such as television, home video games, and chat rooms on the Intent.
   Views of organizations: People vary in their attitudes toward corporations, government agencies, trade unions, and other organizations. Most people are willing to work for these organizations, but there has been an overall decline in organizational loyalty. The massive wave of company downsizing has bred cynicism and distrust. Many people today see work not as a source of satisfaction, but as a required chore to earn money to enjoy their no work hours.
HIGH PERSISTENCE OF CORE CULTURAL VALUES the people living in a particular society hold many core beliefs and values that tend to persist. Most Americans still believe in work, in getting married, in giving to charity, and in being honest. Core beliefs and values are passed on from parents to children and are reinforced by major social institutions--schools, churches, businesses, and governments. Secondary beliefs and values are more open to change. Believing in the institution of marriage is a core belief; believing that people ought to get married early is a secondary belief. Thus family-planning marketers could make some headway arguing that people should get married later, rather than that they should not get married at all.
      Marketers have some chance of changing secondary values but little chance of changing core values. For instance, the nonprofit organization Mothers Against Drunk Drivers (MADD) does not try to stop the sale of alcohol, but it does promote the idea of appointing a designated driver who will not drink that evening. The group also lobbies' to rise the legal drinking age.
EXISTENCE OF SUBCULTURES Each society contains subcultures, groups with shared values emerging from their special life experiences or circumstances. Star Trek fans, Black Muslims, and Hell's Angels all represent subcultures whose members share common beliefs, preferences, and behaviors. To the extent that subcultural groups exhibit different wants and consumption behavior, marketers can choose particular sub-cultures as target markets.
     Marketers sometimes reap unexpected rewards in targeting subcultures. For instance, marketers have always loved teenagers because they are society's trendsetters in fashion, music, entertainment, ideas, and attitudes. Marketers .also know that if they attract someone as a teen, there is a good chance they will keep the person as a customer in the years ahead, Loreto-Lay, which draws 15 percent of its sales from teens, said it saw a rise in chip-snacking by grown-ups. "We think it's because we brought them in as teenagers," said Frito-Lay marketing director?
  SHIFTS OF SECONDARY CULTURAL VALUES THROUGH TIME although core values are fairly persistent, cultural swings do take place. In the 1960s, hippies, the Beatles, Elvis Presley, and other cultural phenomena had a major impact on young people's hairstyles, clothing, sexual norms, and life goals. New heroes influence today’s young people

习     题

一、单选题
1.()指生产者首次购买某种产品或服务
A直接重购   B修正重购  C新购
2．当消费者高度介入某项产品的购买，但又看不出各厂牌有何差异时，对所购产品往往产生失调感。为了改变这样的心理，追求心理的平衡，消费者广泛地收集各种对已购产品的有利信息，以证明自己购买决定的正确性。这属于（）
A复杂的购买行为   B减少不协调感的购买行为 C 广泛选择的购买行为  D习惯性的购买行为
3．产业用品渠道一般不包括(　　)
A、批发商　B、代理商 C、制造商　D、零售商
4、能满足同一需要的各种产品的生产者互为(　　)竞争者。
A、愿望　B、平行 C、产品形式　D、品牌
5、按照人口的具体变量细分市场的方法就是(　　)细分。
A、地理　B、行为 C、心理　D、人口
6.影响消费者购买行为的个人因素主要有( )
   A.动机     B.收入     C.民族     D.家庭
7在生产者市场中，购买商品或者劳务的一般是 。 （ ）
A.消费者 B.个人 C.生产企业 D.家庭
8.消费者对日用品的购买多是从 出发，并且可以接受同质同类的替代品。 （ ）
A.便利 B.价格 C.随机 D.个人心态
9.代理商的最大特点是 。 （ ）
　　A.直接从事产品购销活动 B.不具有独立法人资格
　　C.不拥有产品所有权 D.以购销差价为回报
10．消费者购买决策过程的顺序通常为（）
A．引起需要--->收集信息--->评价比较--->决定购买--->购后感受
B．引起需要--->评价比较--->收集信息--->决定购买--->购后感受
C．收集信息--->评价比较--->引起需要--->决定购买--->购后感受
D．决定购买--->引起需要--->评估比较--->收集信息--->购后感受
11．根据马斯洛的需要层次理论（）
A．需要的层次越高越不可缺少
B．需要的层次越低越重要
C．尊重的需要是最高层次的需要
D．层次最高的需要最先需要
12高级音响、录像机等高档消费品的专用性（）
A．很强
B．很弱
C．较强
D．无专用性
13．产品从制造商到达用户手中，常常（）
A．不要经过中间环节
B．要经过中间环节
C．不要经过批发环节
D．一定要经过批发环节
14.机会水平和威胁水平均很高的企业业务属于 　(　)
　　A理想业务　B困难业务C冒险业务D成熟业务
15.指出下列哪种市场是不可扩张市场(　)
　　A儿童玩具市场　　B家用电器市场　C烟草市场　D食盐市场
16.同一层次的多个企业为了争夺同一目标市场的销售而进行的竞争称为 (　)
　　A水平渠道冲突 B垂直渠道冲突　C水平渠道竞争 　D渠道系统竞争
17. 小王正在购买一套两室两厅的单元房，其购买行为应该属于
A. 习惯性购买行为
B. 寻求多样化购买行为
C. 化解不协调购买行为
D. 复杂购买行为
二、多选题
1. 人口环境主要指（）
A总人口  B人口的地理分布  C人口的年龄结构  D人口的性别  E家庭单位与人数
2.消费者信贷会增加购买能力，他的主要形式有（）
A日用品的短期赊销  B房屋按揭  C轿车分期付款   D信用卡信贷 
3．影响消费者指出方式的较为重要的因素（）
A家庭收入  B家庭生命周期 C 家庭所在地 D 家庭人口总数 E 宗教信仰与价值观念
4．市场营销环境的特点
A差异性  B多变性  C相关性 D目的性
5．社会文化环境包括（）
A宗教信仰 B价值观念 C 消费习俗 D审美观念 E道德规范
6．渠道企业包括（）
A供应商 B中间商 C批发商 D广告代理商
7．竞争者的类型（）
A愿望竞争者  B一般竞争者  C产品形式竞争者D 品牌竞争者 
8．营销学公众包括（）
A金融公众  B政府公众   C媒体公众  D 市民行动公众
9．波特认为，在与五种竞争力量的抗争中，蕴涵着三类成功型战略思想，这三种思路是：
A总成本领先战略；B差异化战略；C专一化战略  D横向一体化
10．市场机会作为特定的市场条件，是以其四个特征为标志的（0。
 A利益性 B针对性 C时效性 D公开性
思考题：
1． 主要竞争者在什么基础上进行竞争?该企业面临的主要竞争是什么?如他们的差异性优势是什么?它可维持吗?它如何由营销活动所支持?　
2． 环境趋势、变化为该行业、企业、及其营销活动提供了何种机遇、威胁?
3．企业寻找新的市场营销机会的方法主要有哪些?

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