中国经济管理大学 《心理学与人力资源管理》 （MBA研究生课程班）Chapter 10 – Strategic Workforce Planning 
      韦恩.F.卡西欧（Wayne F. Cascio）美国科罗拉多大学（丹佛校区）商学院Robert H. Reynolds全球领导与管理讲座教授，拥有罗切斯特大学工业与组织心理学博士学位。担任美国心理学会工业／组织心理学分会、美国管理学会、全美人力资源学会等多个组织会士。
　　赫尔曼·阿吉斯（Herman Aguinis）美国科罗拉多大学（丹佛校区）商学院Mehalchin管理讲座教授。曾担任美国管理学会研究方法分会会长。
Chapter 10 – Strategic Workforce Planning 

Overview 
 Strategic Workforce Planning, Chapter 10, deals with the reasons and processes for the systematic use of human resources within organizations. Strategic Workforce planning includes the documentation of existing talents of employees within an organization and identifies employees whose skills enable them to fulfill other organizational positions. This documentation is referred to as the Talent Inventory. SWPs also predict the needs for future employees. This prediction is called a HR Forecast.   SWPs work within the context of on-going business plans and are subject to frequent revisions.  SWP effectiveness increases when the accuracy of the forecasts is compared with organizational outcomes.  The ultimate goal of any SWP is the most efficient use of people within the organization.
Annotated Outline
I. At a Glance 
A.  Workforce planning
1.  Talent inventories
  2.  HR Forecasts
   a.  Supply
   b.  Demand
  3.  Control and evaluation
B. Influences
  1.  Recruitment
  2.  Selection
3.  Placement
  4.  Performance management
  5.  Training and development
C. Goal – effective use of employees within the organization
II. Introduction 
A.  Society is challenged to use human resources judiciously.
 1.  Specialized talent needs
 2.  Locating experienced talent
 3.  Following employment laws
 4.  Rightsizing an organization
 5.  Developing talent 
 6.  Improving productivity
B.  Businesses remain challenged to develop workforce plans to match business plans.
III. What is Strategic Workforce Planning? 
A. Introduction   
 1.  Assessment current Employees  
2.  Plan to find new employees  
3.  Development of all employees   
4.  Part of organizational goals
               B.   Talent Inventory – current employee KSAOs and assignments
               C.  Forecasting Workforce Supply and Demand – predicted needs and availability   
               D. Workforce Demand – competition within the organization and from competitors
  E.  Control and Evaluation – comparing the availability of resources, the success of    employees, and relative costs to benefits
  F.  Strategic Business and Workforce Plans
       1.  Levels 
a.  Strategic
   i.   long range in scope
   ii.  heavy resource commitment
   iii. repetitive rather than fixed
  b.  Operational
   i.   day to day plan
   ii.  receptive but resistant
  c.  Tactical
   i.   may be forced by outside changes
    ii.  may be result of strategic changes
   2.   Conventional Planning Process
  a.  Define organizational philosophy
  b.  Clarify organization identity at all levels 
  c.  Determine strengths & weaknesses
  d.  Design the structure
  e.  Determine the strategy(ies)
  f.  Implement the strategies 
  3.  About Business and Strategic Plans
a.  Strategies are competition plans 
b.  Plans are ways to manage the future
c.  Plans lead to:
     i.   More successful outcomes
     ii.  Greater sense of control 
     iii. Clarified organizational objectives 
     iv. Improved organizational management
  4.  Values Based Planning Process (an alternative)
    a.  Define basic, fundamental values of the company       
b.  Identify management practices/policies support these values    
 c.  Determine what company does better than competition    
 d.  Arrange delivery products or services   
 e.  Manage the organizational values
  5.  Benefits of Planning
   a.  Focus on & plan for growth      
b.  Changes emphasis from cost cutting
  6.  Costs or Risks with Planning - may lock or freeze an organization
  7.  Workforce Plans Relationship to Business Plans
   a.  Focuses on the “people” impacts of any major changes 
   b.  Must maintain day-to-day operations    
c.  Must be prepared for future operations
IV. Talent Inventory
A.  A Talent Inventory is an organized database of skills, abilities, career interests, & experience of an organization’s current workforce.
B.  To develop a Talent Inventory, organizations must answer   
 1.  Who to include
 2.  What information per person needs to be known
 3.  How to collect employee information
 4.  How to record & store employee information
 5.  How, to whom, and when to report employee information
 6.  How often to update employee information
 7.  What security and privacy issues must be addressed 
 8.  Will talent information be part of an overall Human Resource Information  System (HRIS)
C.  Typical Talent Inventory Contents 
 1.  Current position
  2.  Previous position(s)
  3.  Other significant work experience 
  4.  Education, continuing education
  5.  Languages & international experience
  6.  Training & Development programs  
  7.  Community or industry leadership
  8.  Current & past performance appraisals 
  9.  Disciplinary actions
  10.  Awards received  
D.  Talent Inventories must work within the context of supply & demand
 1.  What the organization has or can develop
 2.  Where Human Resources need to be added &/or replaced
 3.  What is availability of external workforce 
 4.  What other pressures does the talent face  (consumer behaviors,  technologies,  general economy) 
E.  Sources for External Workforce Supply Information
 1.  Bureau of Labor Statistics 
 2.  National Science Foundation
 3.  Department of Education
 4.  Public Health Service 
 5.  U. S. Employment Service
 6.  Local Chambers of Commerce
 7.  Area Universities, Colleges, Technical Schools
 8.  Major employers in a given region
 9.  Professional organizations
F.   Sources for Internal Workforce Supply Information
  1.  Talent Inventory
 2.  Department / Division Managers
 3.  Past HR turnover records
 4.  Industry growth projections
 5.  Hiring needs discussions with education institutions
G.  An important aspect of Internal Workforce Supply Information is
 1.  Management Succession Planning – growing executives from within
  2.  GE & IBM procedures used as models 
        a.  Line supervision identifies & maintains development information on    the candidates
  b.  HR administrates the plan within the organization
  c.  Committees review the candidates 
  d.  Candidates receive rankings by the committee
  e.  Candidate career paths are directed and encouraged by the     committee
H.  Chief Executive Officer Succession planning is equally important but not as common.
 1.  Organizations must decide
  a.  To promote from within or bring in outside talent
  b.  To follow industry standards for selection or to use the     organization’s preferences
  c.  What will the repercussions be if an outsider is brought in
  d.  What will the repercussions be if promote from within
 

 2.  Failing to plan for CEO succession may cause an entire organization to fail.
 3.  Making the wrong CEO decision may lead other Senior Executives to leave. 
V.  Workforce Demand
 A.  Workforce demands analysis considers
  1. Identifying the critical business factors for each organization
 a.  Dollar volume sales
 b.  Tons of products
 c.  Numbers of students
  2. Knowing the history of factors relative to existing employees
  3. Computing productivity ratios
  4. Determining business trends
  5. Adjusting trends historically and futuristically
  6. Projecting trends impacts on target hiring timeframes 
 B.  Comprehending demands important to retention and to development of  employees
VI. Control and Evaluation
 A.  Monitoring Performance relative to evaluation criteria and costs
  1.  Short-term objectives & evaluations
  2.  Mid-term objectives & evaluations 
  3.  Long-term objectives & evaluations 
  B.  Evaluation criteria and costs
  1.  Turnover 
  2.  Recruiting
  3.  Salary
  4.  Salary to profit ratio 
  5.  Benefits
 C.  Time Horizons
  1.  WPs vary in specificity per the length of the planning period
  2.  Monthly plans will be more detailed than will 5 year plans
  3.  Rules for planning period lengths:
   a.  Provide adequate time to make adjustments as needed 
   b.  Planning should relate to other organizational planning activities
  4.  Multiple HR WPs may be needed to support various BPs
 D.  Responsibility for  Workforce Planning 
  1.  Every line manager should participate
  2.  Every staff manager
  3.  All business plan participants should review and participate as needed
  4.  Participants from every level of the organization should participate
 Discussion Questions
1. Contrast the conventional approach to strategic planning with the values-based approach to developing strategy. Pages 219 – 221    
 Strategic planning determines the way an organization competes for business, customers, clients, or profits.  Traditional strategic plans focus on innovations, quality, speed, or costs. Traditional plans increase the probability of success as the planning helps an organization manage change. These plans require that organizations define their objectives, establish their performance goals, and control their operations.  Strategic plans tend to be long-range in perspective and help an organization continue to grow.
 Values-based strategic planning focuses on the human aspects of an organization and on the fundamental beliefs of the organizational members.  Focusing on beliefs and values and operating the organization by these standards allows an organization to concentrate the best way to operate day-to-day. Values-based planning then is short-term in nature but is believed to contribute to long-term success. When clients, customers, patrons, and supporters recognize a values-based organization, they are more likely to continue doing business with the organization, to encourage others to do business with the organization, and to provide recommendations and support for the operation.  This loyalty contributes to organizational growth.
2. How are workforce plans related to business and HR strategies? Pages 222 – 224  
 Business plans focus on an organization’s competition and service goals.  To accomplish these goals, organizations must have human resources to complete the work of the plans. Human resource (HR) plans parallel the business plans and support the business goals. These plans do not guarantee organizational success but do increase the probability that the organization will reach its goals. Workforce plans are the specific HR plans developed to support the business plans. Workforce plans can be immediate (day-to-day) operations, mid-term (2 to 5 years in scope), and long-term (5 or more years). For every business plan, there should be a corresponding HR Workforce plan.  Workforce plans need to consider existing employee skills and talents, forecasted needs for skills and talents, and competitive demands on employees internal and external to the organization.
3. Describe the five features that characterize high-performance work practices?       Page 223 
 High-performance work practices typically include five features. These features follow. 1.  Allow employees more responsibility by flattening the organizational structure. This means that levels of middle management positions are minimized.                                                                2.  Encourage line managers to act as human resource managers.                                                      3.  Develop the organization as a continuous learning organization.                                                   4.  As much as possible and is feasible, grant employees autonomy to make organizational decisions.                                                                                                                                                         5.  Link employee performance measures to organizational financial performance. 
4.  How might the four components of a WP system apply to a hospital setting? What determines specific workforce needs in various areas? What programs might you suggest to meet such needs? Page 218 - 220
 The four elements of a WP system include a talent inventory, a workforce forecast, an action plan, and the procedures for control and evaluation of the WP. The WP should be an integrated system responsive to strategic & tactical business plans, human resource strategies, forecasts of workforce supply and demand, fluctuations in the labor market, changes in workforce requirements, and adjustments to organizational action plans.  Effective WPs consider short-term, mid-term, and long-term needs and demands on the organization’s HR needs.  WPs must be responsive to the organization’s on-going business plans. 
 These aspects of a WP system might apply to a hospital setting in the following ways. First, the hospital must determine its business plan. For example, will the hospital specialize in its medical services or will it be a general services hospital? Will the hospital serve local residents only or will it strive to serve regional and national patient needs? Will the hospital become a teaching hospital or a research hospital? Will the hospital have to compete with other hospitals for its patients? What are the typical hospital needs for the majority of available patients? How will the majority of patients pay for hospital services? What do other hospitals typically charge for services? 
Next, with the answers to these questions in hand, a WP needs to be developed to consider the HRs needed to begin operations, to sustain operations, and to grow the operation.  HRs needed to administrate and to provide medical care must be determined.  Within these broad categories, specialties need to be identified. Within the specialties, the WPs need to address immediate needs, near-term needs, and long-term needs.  The WPs must address competition for HRs, the length of time & cost to recruit, training needs, and typical attrition rates.  Additionally, hospital WPs must be sensitive to changes in patient demographics that could impact the hospitals business plans and at the same put varying pressures on the WPs.
To go about developing these WPs, I would recommend that hospital executives and investors evaluate census data, communicate with government demographers, consider forecasts by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, establish relationships with university directors,  consider other hospitals providing services to the same patient population, and talk with the hospital’s community planners.  After compiling the information and comparing the results to the hospital’s business plans, I would organize the WPs by short-term (within 5 years), mid-term (6 to 10 years), and long-term (10 to 20 years).  As hospitals tend to be complex and large, the plans need to be detailed but flexible with frequent evaluations to make sure that the financial support can be sustained while continuing to provide and improve hospital services. 
5. Why is WP especially necessary in a downsizing environment?  Pages 230 – 233 
 To downsize an organization is to terminate (lay off) employees or to eliminate positions within the organization.  Downsizing may occur as a result of decreased demand for products or services. Downsizing also may occur as a result of an organization redefining its business goals. Regardless of the reason, all downsizing represents organizational change and may represent reactions to changes both forced and unforced. High quality WPs increase the probability that an organization will keep necessary talent and will develop competitive talent regardless of the changes faced by the organization. Successful WPs identify where talents do not exist and must be added to continue the organization’s survival.  These WPs identify organizational weaknesses, strengthen organizational competencies, and increase the return of investment training expenses for an organization. Additionally, effective WPs contribute to employee perceptions of organizational commitment to HRM and increase employee commitment to the organization by sustainable performance.
6. Why are forecasts of workforce demand more uncertain than those of workforce supply? Pages 225, 226, 230, 231
 Forecasts of workforce demand are more uncertain than workforce supply because the demand represents an estimate or a judgment about individuals who will be needed whereas the supply represents numbers based on evidence.  Supply numbers can be determined based on data internal to the organizations and can be supplemented or adjusted based on data collected by federal agencies such as Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Department of Education and Training, the Census Bureau, and the Department of Labor. There are also state agencies to turn to for supply information, as well as, universities and colleges.  Workforce demand estimates may be rendered inaccurate due to local, regional, national, and global economic changes.  Workforce demands are projected based on business plans.  Business plans are subject to frequent and sometimes drastic changes, thus rendering the workforce demand estimates inaccurate or out-of-date.  Other factors that influence workforce demand estimates include duration of planning period, quality of planning data, and the degree with which the workforce plan is integrated into the business plan.
7.  The chairperson of the board of directors at your firm asks for advice on CEO succession. What practices or research results might you cite? Pages 226 - 229
 I would suggest that the Chairperson is very wise to consider CEO succession before it becomes necessary.  The evidence I would refer to is that organizations with CEO plans in place are better able to manage the context of the CEO change. I would also point out that it is the management of the change context that will predict the organization’s smooth transition. Additionally, while the previous comments are important, I would encourage the Chairperson to continue with the CO planning to make sure that existing senior executives and managers will support the new CEO. I would advise the Chairperson to include the senior executives and managers as much as possible in the planning and development of the CEO succession plan. Allowing their participation will help the Chairperson understand the existing talents and strengths of senior executives and managers and will help the executives and managers support the future CEO.